UP Elections


No wonder Uttar Pradesh is said to be the “Road to Prime Minister’s Chair” as the most populous state of India has 80 Loksabha Seats 403 Assembly Seat and winning or losing this giant has a lot more meaning than any other state in India. 

As UP Assembly Elections 2022 are in culminating on 7th of March and so far the news for BJP has not been good, rather there is an apparent edge to Samajwadi Party in the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav.

2 ladies are also grabbing their bite as Congress in the leadership of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra and Bahujan Samaj Party led by Mayawati are also seem to perform better than hoped. At least, they are no good news for BJP.

Now if BJP loses UP Assembly Polls, there are going to be cascading effects for BJP, and let’s have a look at them-

1- Question mark on Hindutva Politics

Let’s go to the memory lane when after winning the 2017 Assembly Elections with a thumping majority, BJP tried to make Manoj Sinha (now the Lt. Governor of Jammu & Kashmir UT) but it is said that Yogi Adityanath put his foot down and snatched the CM Chair from Sinha. 

There was no problem for BJP Leadership as Yogi Adityanath suited them to pursue their Hindutva agenda as a saffron-wearing seer Yogi Adityanath carried an image of hardcore rightwing politics and a descendent of Mahant Avaidyanath, who was one of the most instrumental leaders in Ayodhya Ram Mandir Movement.

For the last 5 years, time and again Yogi Adityanath proved his utility and remained the biggest mascot of Hindutwa. He used to go to other State Assembly Elections and as usual, he delivered speeches he is known for. Amusingly, he was sent to Kerala Elections where there is no such politics is praised. However, BJP’s narrative proved to be disastrous for them.

So, if BJP loses UP Polls 2022, there will be a big question mark on Yogi’s style of politics which is limited to 80% vs 20%, Thoko (Encounter) Policing and demolishing houses by Bulldozers as he never focussed on real issues like employment, stray cattle, and infrastructure. Taking inspirations from Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he also organized large-scale events like Investor Summit and Defence Expo which yielded nothing, and taxpayers’ money was wasted like anything.

Also read:
UP Elections 2022: 11 Reasons why Akhilesh Yadav is ahead of BJP | Watch Video
UP Assembly Elections 2022: Where is it going after 2 Phases of polling?

2- Tough days ahead for Narendra Modi

Elections are fought on perceptions and there is a general perception across the country that if Yogi Adityanath is going in 2022, Narendra Modi is also not coming back to power in 2024. This is going to be the biggest challenge for BJP to save itself from this perception. 

Narendra Modi, who once used to have remedies for every illness, never lived up to the people’s exceptions. Now, he doesn’t talk about some of his most shouted issues like Black Money, Corruption, China, etc. He could not make a single start which is his own brainchild or implemented successfully and the public at large are benefitted. 

He just remained the old schemes of the UPA Government (some with the malign intension) and one thing which he did from his own idea was Demonetisation which proved to be disastrous for the people of India. The economy almost collapsed and businesses like real estate are yet to recover from this ‘masterstroke’ of Narendra Modi.

Implementing GST with 4 slabs in one stroke was another classic example of Narendra Modi’s bad governance and there are numerous such actions of him, some known to common people, some not. 

As of today, people don’t seem to be angry with Narendra Modi but they are sitting on the verge of getting angry. People have lost their jobs due to mishandling of Indian Economy, people have lost lives, their kins due to Covid Mismanagement so there are enough reasons when people can start thinking that enough is enough, let’s stop talking about Ram Mandir & Pakistan and start talking about jobs!

So, UP Assembly Polls are going to be the most crucial juncture for Narendra Modi as if BJP loses 2022 UP Elections, this can wake people up and start asking for jobs.

3- Presidential and & Vice-Presidential Elections

Another challenge that is BJP is going to face is the Presidential and & Vice-Presidential Elections which are due in July and August 2022, respectively. Looking at the current numbers of MPs, MLAs, and MLCs in states, BJP will be struggling to win these elections if they lose UP Elections 2022. The UP loss will certainly affect the fence-sitting parties who had supported NDA in Presidential and & Vice-Presidential Elections last time but if BJP loses UP Elections and the mood of the nation changes against BJP, it will be hard to anoint a President and Vice President of BJP’s choice.

As data suggests, if BJP comes below 150 in UP, the President will be elected from the opposition side and this will be a big blow to BJP. To understand the arithmetic of Presidential Elections, Watch this episode of What Does This Data Say-

As the Assembly Elections in Uttar Pradesh are undergoing and 2 Phases of polling have been completed, the third phase of polling is due on 20th February 2022. Looking at the current scenario, Akhilesh Yadav, National President of the Samajwadi Party seems to be ahead of BJP. Reportedly, when the elections began, BJP hoped to get a pace from Jat land of Western UP but things didn’t go as per the BJP exceptions. Let’s understand in 11 points, why Akhilesh Yadav is ahead of the BJP.

1- Anti-incumbency of Double Engine: Although BJP claims double engine as their strength of development on the ground but proving to be the weakest point for BJP as the public is annoyed by inflation & unemployment. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has nothing to tell about his achievement except polarisation in the name of Hindus & Muslims and ramming bulldozers on criminals while PM Narendra Modi doesn’t give any clear roadmap of development. He has failed on many occasions to deliver his promises.

2- Covid Mismanagement: Yogi Adityanath’s biggest failure was the Corona Mismanagement and the public has not forgotten the havoc they faced in the second wave of Covid Pandemic in 2021. People are running here and there for oxygen cylinders and the government’s health infrastructure had completely collapsed. People still remember those scary days which BJP wants people to forget as soon as possible.

3- Farmers Agitation: Farmers’ Movement against 3 Central Farm Laws is another reason which makes BJP lose UP Assembly Polls. Sanyukt Kisan Morcha is also involved in campaigning against Narendra Modi Government as it has not fulfilled its promise made to farmers in order to end the farmer’s movement on the border of Delhi. 

4- Jayant Chaudhary Factor: Akhilesh Yadav’s alliance with Jayant Chaudhary is also proving to be helpful to him as Jayant brings the goodwill of Chaudhary Charan Singh with him. His father Chaudhary Ajit Singh who passed away a few months back has played a very crucial role in order to support Rakesh Tikait.

5- Elections Manifesto: BJP has released a vague manifesto with nothing specific commitments while Samajwadi Party has given a detailed Election Manifesto with certain and quantifiable commitments. 300 Units of free electricity and restoration of the old pension scheme may prove to be the trump card for him.

6- Akhilesh’s restraint: Though BJP has been providing Akhilesh Yadav by several name callings like Abbajaan, Tamachawaadi, or Namazwaadi, so far Akhilesh Yadav has shown tremendous restraint and not reacting any of these frivolous provocations. 

7- Azam Khan: One of the senior-most leaders of the Samajwadi Party, Mohd. Azam Khan is in jail for the last 2 years and there are about 87 cases lodged against him. However, he has been given bail in 87 cases but the Yogi Adityanath Government is anyhow stalling his bail in the last 3 cases. These actions of the BJP are whipping lots of sympathies in favor of Akhilesh Yadav, especially in the regions where the Muslims are in pretty good numbers.

8- Tickets Distribution: Ticket distribution to candidates is another reason where Akhilesh Yadav has gained lots of strength. Where BJP has faced feud due to tickets distribution and its rebels are leaving the party, Akhilesh Yadav has managed this crucial factor very well. He is meeting all the aspirants and making them understand the importance of remaining united. His pacifying skills are making him a leader of tomorrow.

9- Pre-Poll Alliances: This is the biggest advantage Akhilesh Yadav gained over BJP and he was able to stitch with small parties, especially the OBC parties like SBSP, Mahaan Dal, and Apna Dal (K), He did not go for the alliance with larger parties like Congress in 2017 and he was able to bring OBC Leader Swami Prasad Maurya on his side.

10- Attack on BJP Policies: Akhilesh Yadav is clear about his political enemy in UP so he is taking head-on with it. He is systemically attacking BJP’s policies while BJP is busy with its negative campaigning.

11- Akhilesh Yadav’s good work in the last term: Akhilesh Yadav has done some really good jobs during his last term as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh from 2012 to 2017 and he is asking people to vote for him on those developments. Lucknow-Agra Expressway, Metro in Lucknow, Laptop Distribution, Dial 100, 1090 Women Power Line, 102 Ambulance Service are a few of the good works done by Akhilesh Yadav.

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